A new peace building report warns that while excitement is growing ahead of BARMM's first parliamentary election, rising extremist violence, political divisions, clan feuds, and economic pressures could threaten stability in the months leading up to the vote. Source: CCAA

Scheduled for September 14, 2026, the vote will mark the transition of the Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (BARMM) from appointed leadership to an elected parliament. Many residents see the election as the culmination of years of peace building efforts and a chance to shape the future of the autonomous region through democratic participation.

Yet a new report from peace building organization Climate Conflict Action Asia (CCAA) warns that the months leading up to the election could become one of the most volatile periods the region has faced since the end of major armed conflict.

Excitement Meets Growing Security Risks

According to the CCAA pre-election conflict briefer, enthusiasm for the upcoming vote is evident across the region. Political parties are mobilizing supporters, new sectoral groups have emerged, and communities are preparing to participate in a political process unlike any previously held in the Bangsamoro.

The report notes that people are optimistic about finally choosing their leaders after years of transitional governance. Increased investment activity in the region has also contributed to hopes that BARMM can continue on a path of economic growth and political stability.

"The organization argues that violence is likely to rise further as election campaigning intensifies in the coming months."

However, conflict monitoring data collected by CCAA shows that violent incidents increased throughout 2025 and are approaching levels last seen before the post-conflict decline that began in 2021. The organization argues that violence is likely to rise further as election campaigning intensifies in the coming months.

Violent Extremism Reemerges Across the Region

One of the most concerning developments identified in the report is the resurgence of violent extremism. Between January and May 2026, CCAA recorded 40 violent extremist incidents, compared with 29 incidents during the final five months of 2025. Deaths linked to these incidents more than doubled from nine to 20.

"The report also highlights signs that remnants of the Abu Sayyaf Group may be reemerging in Sulu after several years of declining violence."

Military operations dealt significant blows to Dawla Islamiyah during April, including the death of the group's emir in Lanao del Sur. However, the report argues that these operations also exposed weaknesses in reintegration programs, noting that several militants killed during military actions had previously surrendered to authorities.

The report also highlights signs that remnants of the Abu Sayyaf Group may be reemerging in Sulu after several years of declining violence. A deadly encounter in Patikul in February raised concerns that extremist networks remain active despite previous security gains.

Political Divisions Within the MILF Raise Concerns

Beyond extremist violence, the report points to growing political tensions within the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF), one of the key architects of the Bangsamoro peace process. The emergence of the Bangsamoro Federalist Party, supported by allies of Interim Chief Minister Abdulraof Macacua, has introduced a new challenge to the MILF-backed United Bangsamoro Justice Party.

"CCAA warns that factional divisions among armed groups that have not fully completed decommissioning could increase the risk of violence during the election period."

Political disputes intensified following the removal of Mohagher Iqbal from his ministerial position amid corruption allegations. The decision triggered a large rally in Cotabato City attended by thousands of MILF supporters calling for the reinstatement of MILF Chairman Murad Ebrahim as Chief Minister and demanding the full implementation of the Comprehensive Agreement on the Bangsamoro.

CCAA warns that factional divisions among armed groups that have not fully completed decommissioning could increase the risk of violence during the election period.

Clan Feuds, Illegal Weapons, and Economic Pressures Add to Instability

Longstanding clan feuds remain another source of concern. The report recorded 43 clan feud incidents during the first four months of 2026, only five fewer than the total recorded during all of 2025. Several of these incidents involved individuals linked to MILF commands.

"CCAA noted that at least 47 gun-related incidents occurred between April and mid-May alone."

At the same time, authorities have continued to seize illegal drugs, smuggled cigarettes, and firearms across the region. CCAA noted that at least 47 gun-related incidents occurred between April and mid-May alone. Security concerns are unfolding alongside economic challenges. BARMM was placed under a state of calamity in May due to the combined effects of an oil crisis and prolonged El Niño conditions, which disrupted livelihoods, transportation, and food security.

Comelec Expresses Confidence Ahead of the Vote

Despite the warnings contained in the report, the Commission on Elections (Comelec) has maintained that preparations for the September election are progressing as planned. Comelec Chairman George Garcia recently stated that the agency is "fully prepared" for the parliamentary election. Automated counting machines are undergoing testing, while authorities plan to strictly enforce election gun bans and deploy security personnel at checkpoints throughout the region.

The differing assessments highlight the challenge facing policymakers. While election officials are focused on operational readiness, peace building organizations are warning that underlying political and security tensions may prove harder to manage.

"For communities that have experienced decades of conflict, the success or failure of this transition could shape the trajectory of peace and governance for years to come."

As September approaches, the election will test not only the strength of Bangsamoro's democratic institutions but also the resilience of the peace process itself. The outcome will be closely watched across Mindanao, particularly in provinces such as Sulu, where recent signs of extremist activity demonstrate how quickly local security conditions can influence wider regional stability. For communities that have experienced decades of conflict, the success or failure of this transition could shape the trajectory of peace and governance for years to come.

REFERENCES

The Manila Times. (2026, June 2). BARMM faces tension ahead of first parliamentary election. The Manila Times. https://www.manilatimes.net

Climate Conflict Action Asia. (2026, June 1). Pre-election CCAA conflict briefer: Excitement and trepidation like no other in the Bangsamoro region. Climate Conflict Action Asia. https://conflictalert.info

Inquirer. (2026, June 1). Comelec ‘fully prepared’ for BARMM elections. Inquirer. https://newsinfo.inquirer.net